Samajwadi Party’s Big Win in UP: 2024 Lok Sabha Election Results LIVE

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Samajwadi Party Takes the Lead in UP

The Samajwadi Party is spearheading the opposition INDIA bloc’s efforts in Uttar Pradesh, 2024 Lok Sabha Election Results LIVE, a crucial state with the highest representation in the Lok Sabha, sending 80 MPs. As of 3 pm, the Samajwadi Party is ahead in 35 seats, while the BJP is leading in 34. This performance could rival their best-ever result in a UP Lok Sabha election, which was 36 seats in 2004 under the Congress-led UPA.

Mr. Yadav’s Strong Performance in Kannauj

In a notable highlight, Mr. Yadav appears set for a significant victory in his family stronghold of Kannauj. By 3 pm, he had established a lead of nearly 3.5 lakh votes over Imran Bin Zafar from ex-Chief Minister Mayawati’s BSP. This strong showing underscores the Samajwadi Party’s robust performance in this election.

BJP’s Subrat Pathak Trails Behind

Meanwhile, BJP’s Subrat Pathak finds himself trailing significantly, with a deficit of over one lakh votes. In the last Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 62 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, with their ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) securing an additional two seats. In stark contrast, the Samajwadi Party managed to win only five seats, mirroring their performance in the 2014 election, which was a decline from the 23 seats they won in 2009.

Congress Gains Ground in Amethi and Raebareli

The Congress is making strides, leading in seven seats, including the key strongholds of Amethi and Raebareli. In Amethi, Kishori Lal is leading against BJP’s Smriti Irani, while in Raebareli, Rahul Gandhi is ahead of BSP’s Thakur Prasad. If the current lead in Amethi holds, with Congress ahead by over 1.1 lakh votes, it would represent a significant boost for the party.

Historic Victory in Amethi

Winning back Amethi would not only reclaim a seat held by former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi from 1981, after a by poll following the assassination of his mother and predecessor, Indira Gandhi, until his own tragic assassination in 1991, but it would also deliver a significant blow to Union Minister Smriti Irani and the BJP.

Rahul Gandhi’s Lead in Raebareli

Rahul Gandhi, who was expected to contest from Amethi but chose Raebareli after his mother, Sonia Gandhi, moved to the Rajya Sabha, is currently leading by 3.3 lakh votes over the BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh. This substantial lead solidifies his position and showcases the Congress’s resurgence in these critical constituencies.

SP’s Historic Feat in Uttar Pradesh

Should today’s numbers hold, the Samajwadi Party will have achieved what neither the Congress nor the BSP could in the past two national or state elections—defeat the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. This result isn’t entirely unexpected. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP was dominant, winning 255 out of 417 seats in Uttar Pradesh. However, the Samajwadi Party was the closest rival, securing 111 seats. This was a significant 64-seat increase from their previous performance five years earlier, driven largely by the farmers’ protests against the BJP’s ‘double-engine government’. This groundswell of support appears to have carried over into the current election.

Exit Poll Surprises

Uttar Pradesh has emerged as the big surprise in this election. A collection of exit polls predicted a strong showing for the BJP, with the party and its NDA partners expected to win 68 seats. The INDIA bloc was predicted to win just 12 seats, with some polls, like Republic Bharat-Matrize and India Today-Axis My India, suggesting they could secure as few as six seats. However, TV5 Telugu bucked the trend, predicting the opposition group would claim a narrow majority with 43 seats.

The INDIA Bloc’s Mission

The Samajwadi Party is contesting as part of the Congress-led INDIA opposition bloc, formed in June last year to defeat Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP in the elections. There are 63 candidates from the SP and 17 from the Congress. As the first seat-share agreement disclosed by members of the INDIA bloc, it caused a stir when it was revealed. Previous attempts at similar agreements in other states had failed, and negotiations between the Congress and the Trinamool in Bengal had broken down amicably.

Projections for BJP-led NDA

The projections for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are quite optimistic. Two out of twelve exit pollsters, India Today-Axis My India and India TV-CNX, forecast the NDA winning as many as 401 seats. Another poll by News24-Today’s Chanakya predicts the alliance will secure around 400 seats. Additional projections from ABP News-C Voter, Jan Ki Baat, and News Nation estimate the NDA winning a maximum of 383, 392, and 378 seats respectively. The BJP coalition is projected to remain comfortably above the 281-seat mark in its pursuit of the 272-seat majority. This strong footing suggests a continued dominance in the race.

INDIA Bloc’s Determined Response

Despite being often dismissed as a motley crew of opposition parties, the INDIA bloc has brushed off these predictions. They are resolute in their mission, which began in June last year, to unseat Prime Minister Modi and the BJP.

Congress Leadership’s Confidence

Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi have confidently claimed that the INDIA bloc will secure 295 seats. They are steadfast in their belief that they can surpass the exit poll predictions.

Exit Polls’ Divergent Views

However, the exit poll data does not fully align with their optimism. While none of the exit polls project the INDIA bloc reaching their target, four polls do suggest that they could win over 150 seats.

Mixed Predictions for INDIA Bloc

TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, Times Now-ETG, and Republic TV-P Marq forecast the INDIA group winning 166, 152, and 154 seats, respectively. Similarly, News Nation and ABP News-C Voter estimate the bloc’s seat tally between 152 and 182.

However, India News-D Dynamics and News 24-Today’s Chanakya are less optimistic, projecting only 125 and 107 seats for the INDIA bloc. Other pollsters believe the bloc will secure between 109 and 166 seats.

BJP’s Strong Performance

In contrast, the BJP appears to be on track to achieve its internal target of 370 seats. This projection indicates the party is closer than anticipated to its ambitious ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ goal, which includes the success of its NDA partners.

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